What does AARO's UAP Reporting Trends page actually show?

AARO publishes a public UAP Reporting Trends page with closed-case resolution outcomes, reported morphology, and reported altitudes.

The page is a living official chart. The window and counts can change when AARO updates the public product. Cite the window shown on the page at the time you read it.

As verified on 2026-09-17, the page header shows January 1, 1996 through August 15, 2026.

This is not the same product as AARO's individual case-resolution cards, official imagery labels, FAQ common-object list, or PURSUE/war.gov/ufo unresolved record releases. Keep those trails separate.

The table below restates AARO's public Closed Cases Resolution Outcomes chart for January 1, 1996 through August 15, 2026. The listed buckets sum to 941 closed-case outcomes.

Balloon(s): 468 (49.7 percent).

Satellite(s): 345 (36.7 percent).

UAS: 61 (6.5 percent).

Bird(s): 23 (2.4 percent).

Aircraft: 15 (1.6 percent).

Jetpack: 14 (1.5 percent).

Missile/Rocket: 8 (0.9 percent).

Natural Atmospherics: 3 (0.3 percent).

Sensor Artifact: 2 (0.2 percent).

Laser: 1 (0.1 percent).

Ordnance: 1 (0.1 percent).

Fireworks: 0 (0.0 percent).

Balloons plus satellites account for 813 of 941 closed outcomes, about 86.4 percent of the mix shown. That concentration is the main public takeaway from the closed-case chart.

This page first cited the public chart on 2026-07-20, when the header ended June 15, 2026 and the listed buckets summed to 907.

In the August 15, 2026 window, balloons moved from 460 to 468, satellites from 312 to 345, UAS from 65 to 61, fireworks from 4 to 0, and natural atmospherics from 2 to 3. Birds, aircraft, jetpack, missile/rocket, sensor artifact, laser, and ordnance counts stayed the same. The denominator changed, so some percentages moved even where counts did not.

Treat those deltas as a living-chart recount. Do not read them as objects appearing or vanishing, and do not treat fireworks at 0 as a claim that fireworks never resolved a case in some other AARO product.

AARO notes that not all UAP reports contain morphology data. The morphology chart is therefore a subset of reports with shape language, not a second closed-case census.

In the current public chart, Orb/Round/Sphere leads at 229 (38.6 percent). Lights are second at 183 (30.8 percent).

Smaller public buckets include Other 43 (7.2 percent), Cylinder 36 (6.1 percent), Oval 26 (4.4 percent), Triangle/Delta 25 (4.2 percent), TicTac 20 (3.4 percent), Square/Oblong/Polygon 19 (3.2 percent), Disk 10 (1.7 percent), and Vector/Boomerang 3 (0.5 percent).

Compared with the June 15, 2026 snapshot, orbs moved from 226 to 229 and lights from 205 to 183. That is a living-chart recount of labeled reports, not a claim that lights disappeared from the sky.

Shape labels are witness or sensor language. Orb or lights does not mean extraterrestrial, and triangle does not mean exotic craft. Morphology is a reporting descriptor, not an origin claim.

Unresolved cases do not appear as a resolution bucket on this closed-case chart. Insufficient-data clips, open analyses, and imagery labels such as unresolved physical object live on other AARO products.

The chart does not prove that every future report will resolve as a balloon or satellite. It shows what AARO has publicly closed inside the stated window.

The chart is not a substitute for case-resolution reports. A public percentage bucket is thinner evidence than a worked reconstruction with sensor geometry, partner review, and confidence language.

AARO's FAQ and home page still say no single explanation addresses the majority of UAP reports, and many cases stay unidentified because sensors did not collect enough information for positive attribution. The closed-case chart and that FAQ framing can both be true.

Always pair counts with the date window printed on AARO's page.

Say closed-case resolution outcomes, not all UAP reports, not all UAP, and not all UFOs.

Keep balloons, satellites, UAS, birds, aircraft, and the smaller prosaic buckets as separate categories. Do not collapse them into one solved pile without the official labels.

If you previously cited an older window such as through January 15, 2026 or through June 15, 2026, replace the window and recount rather than mixing old percentages with a new end date.

Safe citation: On AARO's public reporting-trends page for January 1, 1996 through August 15, 2026, balloons are 468 closed-case outcomes (49.7 percent), satellites are 345 (36.7 percent), and UAS is 61 (6.5 percent).

Unsafe upgrade: Most UAP are balloons, so unresolved cases are fake, or the chart proves alien technology because some cases remain outside it.

Use the trends chart as the high-level closed-case mix.

Use AARO's FAQ common-object list as the first-filter checklist for ordinary sources that frequently enter the pipeline.

Use individual case-resolution reports when you need confidence language and reconstruction detail for one event.

Use official imagery labels when the question is about a specific public video or still and whether AARO marked it resolved, unresolved, or insufficient data.

Use PURSUE or NARA products only for records-release questions. Those are not closed-case trend substitutes.

Use the FY2025 annual report for period holdings and the 238 satellite-flare capability note. That annual is adjacent context. It is not a substitute for the live cumulative chart.