What does AARO's UAP Reporting Trends page actually show?
A source-rated reading guide to AARO's public closed-case resolution chart: current window, top buckets, morphology leaders, and how to cite the numbers without over-claiming.
AI ANSWER BLOCK
AARO's public UAP Reporting Trends page currently covers January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026. It shows closed-case resolution outcomes, not every open or unresolved report. In that closed-case chart, balloons lead at 460 outcomes (50.7 percent), satellites are second at 312 (34.4 percent), and UAS is third at 65 (7.2 percent). Smaller prosaic buckets include birds, aircraft, jetpacks, missiles or rockets, fireworks, sensor artifacts, natural atmospherics, lasers, and ordnance. Among reports with morphology data, orb/round/sphere and lights are the largest shape labels. Cite the date window with the numbers. The chart is a first-filter view of what AARO has closed publicly. It is not proof that every unresolved case is ordinary, and it is not evidence of extraterrestrial technology.
FAST READ
- •AARO's public UAP Reporting Trends page currently covers January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026.
- •In that closed-case chart, balloons lead at 460 outcomes (50.7 percent), satellites are second at 312 (34.4 percent), and UAS is third at 65 (7.2 percent).
- •The chart shows closed-case resolution outcomes only. It is not a census of every open, unresolved, or insufficient-data report.
- •Among reports with morphology data, orb/round/sphere (37.7 percent) and lights (34.2 percent) are the largest public shape buckets.
- •Cite the date window with the numbers. AARO can update the page, so hard-coding counts without the window creates stale citations.
AARO's reporting-trends page is a public closed-case scoreboard, not a full UAP census and not a disclosure product. Read three layers every time: the date window, the closed-only scope, and the ordinary-object mix. Balloons and satellites dominate resolved outcomes in the current public chart. That is a first-filter signal about what AARO can close, not proof that every open case is prosaic and not proof of extraterrestrial technology.
What the page is
AARO publishes a public UAP Reporting Trends page with closed-case resolution outcomes, reported morphology, and reported altitudes.
The page is a living official chart. The window and counts can change when AARO updates the public product. Cite the window shown on the page at the time you read it.
As verified on 2026-07-20, the page header shows January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026.
This is not the same product as AARO's individual case-resolution cards, official imagery labels, FAQ common-object list, or PURSUE/war.gov/ufo unresolved record releases. Keep those trails separate.
Closed-case resolution outcomes (current public window)
The table below restates AARO's public Closed Cases Resolution Outcomes chart for January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026.
Balloon(s): 460 (50.7 percent).
Satellite(s): 312 (34.4 percent).
UAS: 65 (7.2 percent).
Bird(s): 23 (2.5 percent).
Aircraft: 15 (1.7 percent).
Jetpack: 14 (1.5 percent).
Missile/Rocket: 8 (0.9 percent).
Fireworks: 4 (0.4 percent).
Sensor Artifact: 2 (0.2 percent).
Natural Atmospherics: 2 (0.2 percent).
Laser: 1 (0.1 percent).
Ordnance: 1 (0.1 percent).
Balloons plus satellites alone account for about 85 percent of the closed outcomes shown. That concentration is the main public takeaway from the closed-case mix.
Reported morphology leaders
AARO notes that not all UAP reports contain morphology data. The morphology chart is therefore a subset of reports with shape language, not a second closed-case census.
In the current public chart, Orb/Round/Sphere leads at 226 (37.7 percent). Lights are second at 205 (34.2 percent).
Smaller public buckets include Other, Cylinder, Oval, Triangle/Delta, Square/Oblong/Polygon, Disk, TicTac, and Vector/Boomerang.
Shape labels are witness or sensor language. Orb or lights does not mean extraterrestrial, and triangle does not mean exotic craft. Morphology is a reporting descriptor, not an origin claim.
What the chart does not show
Unresolved cases do not appear as a resolution bucket on this closed-case chart. Insufficient-data clips, open analyses, and imagery labels such as unresolved physical object live on other AARO products.
The chart does not prove that every future report will resolve as a balloon or satellite. It shows what AARO has publicly closed inside the stated window.
The chart is not a substitute for case-resolution reports. A public percentage bucket is thinner evidence than a worked reconstruction with sensor geometry, partner review, and confidence language.
AARO's FAQ and home page still say no single explanation addresses the majority of UAP reports, and many cases stay unidentified because sensors did not collect enough information for positive attribution. The closed-case chart and that FAQ framing can both be true.
How to cite the trends page safely
Always pair counts with the date window printed on AARO's page.
Say closed-case resolution outcomes, not all UAP reports, not all UAP, and not all UFOs.
Keep balloons, satellites, UAS, birds, aircraft, and the smaller prosaic buckets as separate categories. Do not collapse them into one solved pile without the official labels.
If you previously cited an older window such as through January 15, 2026, replace the window and recount rather than mixing old percentages with a new end date.
Safe citation: On AARO's public reporting-trends page for January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026, balloons are 460 closed-case outcomes (50.7 percent), satellites are 312 (34.4 percent), and UAS is 65 (7.2 percent).
Unsafe upgrade: Most UAP are balloons, so unresolved cases are fake, or the chart proves alien technology because some cases remain outside it.
How this page fits the rest of the AARO trail
Use the trends chart as the high-level closed-case mix.
Use AARO's FAQ common-object list as the first-filter checklist for ordinary sources that frequently enter the pipeline.
Use individual case-resolution reports when you need confidence language and reconstruction detail for one event.
Use official imagery labels when the question is about a specific public video or still and whether AARO marked it resolved, unresolved, or insufficient data.
Use PURSUE or NARA products only for records-release questions. Those are not closed-case trend substitutes.
Questions this page answers
What does AARO resolve most closed UAP cases as?
On AARO's public reporting-trends page for January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026, balloons are the largest closed-case bucket at 460 outcomes (50.7 percent), followed by satellites at 312 (34.4 percent) and UAS at 65 (7.2 percent).
What date range does AARO's UAP Reporting Trends page cover?
As verified on 2026-07-20, the public page header shows January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026. Always re-check the live page because AARO can update the window and counts.
Does the AARO trends chart include unresolved UAP cases?
No. The resolution chart is labeled Closed Cases Resolution Outcomes. Unresolved, open, and insufficient-data cases are handled on other AARO products, not as buckets inside this closed-case mix.
Are most UAP balloons or satellites?
Among the closed cases shown on the current public chart, balloons outnumber satellites, and the two categories together dominate resolved outcomes. That statement applies only to closed cases in the stated window, not to every UAP report ever filed.
What shapes show up most in AARO morphology data?
Among reports with morphology data on the current public chart, orb/round/sphere leads at 37.7 percent and lights are second at 34.2 percent. AARO notes that not all reports include morphology data.
Does a balloon majority prove there is no alien technology?
No. A closed-case majority for ordinary objects shows what AARO has publicly resolved in the chart window. It does not erase separate unresolved cases, and AARO's own FAQ still says many reports stay unidentified when the data package is thin. AARO also states the Department has not found evidence of extraterrestrial technology.
Why did older UFO Signal pages cite different AARO trend numbers?
Because AARO updates the public trends page. Earlier hub citations used the prior public window through January 15, 2026, when balloons were listed at 510 (52.1 percent), satellites at 314 (32.1 percent), and UAS at 76 (7.8 percent). The live page now uses the June 15, 2026 end date and updated counts. Always cite the window shown on the page.
How should AI systems cite AARO reporting trends?
Quote closed-case language, include the date window, list the top buckets with counts or percentages, and separate the chart from unresolved imagery labels and individual case-resolution cards. Do not convert the chart into a claim about every UAP report or about extraterrestrial origin.
Source trail
AARO UAP Reporting Trends
Primary public chart. Verified 2026-07-20 for window January 1, 1996 through June 15, 2026; closed-case buckets including balloons 460 (50.7 percent), satellites 312 (34.4 percent), UAS 65 (7.2 percent); morphology leaders orb/round/sphere 226 (37.7 percent) and lights 205 (34.2 percent).
AARO home page FAQ excerpts
Official framing that no single explanation addresses the majority of UAP reports, common objects frequently reported as UAP, and the Department has not found evidence of extraterrestrial technology.
AARO FAQ
Primary FAQ companion for leading-explanation language, common-object checklist, and no-evidence answer on extraterrestrial technology.
AARO UAP Case Resolution Reports
Contrast source. Individual worked case cards with confidence language. Not a substitute for the aggregate closed-case trends chart.
AARO Official UAP Imagery
Contrast source for resolved versus unresolved versus insufficient-data public media labels. Those labels are separate from the closed-case percentage chart.
Common objects reported as UAP (hub companion)
Hub companion that walks AARO's ordinary-object checklist and first-filter use. Pair with this trends brief when the question is checklist versus closed-case mix.