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LONGITUDINAL SIGNAL LEDGER · 2004–2026
← ALL SOURCE-RATED INTELLIGENCE BRIEFS

22 Years of UAP Signal: Claims beside the primary record.

From the November 2004 USS Nimitz encounter and DIA’s $22M AAWSAP contract through the 2023 congressional hearings, AARO case resolutions, and the 2026 PURSUE war.gov/ufo archive drops. Each event carries its sources and a claim rating next to a record rating. A coordinated drip is one of four hypotheses on this page, shown with the others at equal weight.

Four competing readings/How these events were verified

LEDGER TELEMETRY · OCT 2026
LEDGER ERAS
06
AARO FY2025 LOG
1,870
PURSUE RELEASES
01–06
SOURCE-CHECKED
52

4 competing readings are listed below. The page does not select one.

COMPETING READINGS · EQUAL WEIGHT

Four hypotheses, none treated as a finding

Whether the 2004-2026 pattern reflects a coordinated 'drip' is contested. UFO Signal presents it as one of four competing hypotheses, none proven by the public record.

H1

Coordinated 'soft disclosure' drip campaign

Some insiders believe non-human intelligence is real and are releasing information gradually to acclimatize the public and push Congress.

Points cited for it
  • Former officials have made escalating public claims over many years, often in DOPSR-reviewed formats.
  • Senators wrote 'non-human intelligence' into 2023 bill text after classified briefings.
Where it struggles
  • No physical evidence has survived independent public testing (e.g., the ORNL specimen analysis, 2024).
  • Claims increasingly rely on interviews and books rather than releasable sensor data.
H2

Circular reporting & feedback loop (AARO's assessment)

A small network of people retells the same secondhand accounts, mistaking rumors, unapproved proposals such as KONA BLUE, and real classified programs for crash retrievals.

Points cited for it
  • AARO Historical Record Report Vol. 1 (2024).
  • ORNL's analysis found a claimed 'alien' metal specimen terrestrial.
Where it struggles
  • Does not by itself explain multi-witness military encounters that remain officially unresolved, such as the 2004 Nimitz FLIR clip.
H3

Over-classification, secret programs & sensor confusion

Real classified aircraft, adversary drones, and sensor artifacts plus compartmentalized secrecy lead uninformed witnesses to see anomalies.

Points cited for it
  • CIA's U-2/OXCART history (released 2013) says those flights accounted for more than half of UFO reports in the late 1950s and much of the 1960s.
  • Documented unattributed drone incursions over U.S. bases (e.g., Langley, Dec 2023).
Where it struggles
  • Does not easily explain why some cleared former officials say they were told of non-human craft or biologics.
H4

Counterintelligence cover / strategic ambiguity

UAP narratives could provide cover for testing secret U.S. platforms or project ambiguity toward rivals.

Points cited for it
  • Cold War precedent of UFO reports overlapping with secret reconnaissance flights.
Where it struggles
  • Public hearings, inspector-general complaints, and FOIA fights create costly chaos for the Pentagon, an inefficient way to run a cover story.
ERA SCRUBBER · 2004–2026
SHOWING 52 OF 52 SOURCE-CHECKED EVENTS

Wave intensity scores are editorial estimates of relative public attention, not a measured index.

ACTIVE ERA READOUT · WAVE 06 · 2026
Executive Records Release (PURSUE)
DOMINANT LEXICON: PURSUE / NDA Waiver / RG 615
After former President Obama's viral Feb 14, 2026 comment, President Trump posts on Feb 19 that he will direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to identify and release UAP files. The Department of War launches PURSUE at war.gov/ufo (six releases, May-Sept 2026), ODNI and DoW issue NDA-waiver guidance, and the House adopts a UAP Disclosure Act amendment to the FY2027 NDAA.
PRIMARY CATALYSTFeb 19, 2026 presidential statement + May-Sept 2026 PURSUE Releases 01-06
INSTITUTIONAL OUTCOMEFY2025 annual report logs 1,870 total cases; PURSUE files are public and testable against viral claims, and most are labeled unresolved for lack of data.
DISPLAY MODE:

Each card lists its sources, claim and record ratings, and a verification status. How these events were verified

FILTER BY ACTOR / INSTITUTION COHORT
WHERE IT SURFACED
UFOSIGNAL RATING TIER
WAVE 01 · 2004–2013 · Classified Encounters & Press Club Era
UFO / AAV

Verification note Quote trimmed to the verified NYT wording (the added 'within less than a second it was gone' could not be matched). '80,000 ft descent' and radar-operator details removed (not in cited sources). Lt. Underwood and Kevin Day removed as actors.

AARO FLIR video: unresolved 2004 Navy clip, not a case resolution

Verification note Removed the quoted tape line ('Did you see a flying disc out by C-17?'), which could not be matched verbatim. Record rating lowered to MEDIA REPORT (no primary FAA record linked).

Verification note Claim rating set to UNVERIFIED CLAIM (witness accounts).

Verification note Removed the $10M FY08 / $12M FY10 split (not in sources). Corrected 'DIA terminated funding in 2010' to cancelled in 2012 (AARO). Removed the '38 DIRDs' count (not re-verified). Lacatski and Puthoff removed as actors.

Are AAWSAP and AATIP the same Pentagon UFO program?

Verification note The original said AARO Vol. 1 found maintenance faults were conflated with sightings. That is not what Vol. 1 says; it deferred these cases to Vol. 2. Fenstermacher removed as actor (not confirmed).

What AARO's Historical Record Report Volume 1 actually found

Verification note 'Formally rejected for lacking operational merit' changed to 'terminated' (letter wording). Named private individuals (Lacatski, Kelleher) removed as actors; not named in the cited records excerpt.

What was KONA BLUE, and did DHS run a UFO retrieval program?
AARO Puerto Rico case resolution: Aguadilla IR video, not a transmedium craft

Verification note Reworded the Blue Book claim ('used to mask recon operations' overstated the source). Removed Kelly Johnson and T.D. Barnes as actors (not part of the 2013 release).

WAVE 02 · 2014–2019 · The Destigmatization Pivot
UAP (Aerial)

Verification note Exact day (Jan 21) unsupported; DoD only says January 2015. 'Warning Area W-72' removed. Graves and Accoin are not established as the crews who filmed the clips; reworded.

Gimbal vs GoFast vs FLIR: what AARO’s public record actually says

Verification note Quote corrected: she said 'unexplained aerial phenomenon', not 'Unidentified Aerial Phenomena'. Podesta-email details (DeLonge, Mitchell, McCasland) cut from this event (not sourced in this pass). 'First high-profile introduction' softened.

Verification note The original presented 'secured DOPSR release of three Navy FLIR videos' as fact. It is Elizondo's claim and is disputed by the Navy/Pentagon; downgraded and both sides shown. DOPSR case number '17-S-2496' removed (unverified).

Verification note Specific online claims ('entered water and shot into the sky') softened to 'promoted as anomalous'.

AARO Al Taqaddum case resolution: high-confidence balloon cluster, not anomalous craft

Verification note Attribution of the Pentagon confirmation to 'spokesperson Dana White' and 'received $22M through 2012' could not be confirmed as worded; reworded. Reid quote verified. 'Subsequent PURSUE records clarified' replaced with AARO's own finding.

Are AAWSAP and AATIP the same Pentagon UFO program?

Verification note Bob Lazar / Joe Rogan #1315 portion and '55M+ views' cut (not sourced in this pass). 'Would dominate the 2024 campaign cycle' editorializing removed.

WAVE 03 · 2020–2022 · Institutionalization
UAP (Aerial → Anomalous)

Verification note Scott Bray and Travis Taylor removed as actors (not part of these records).

DoD 2020 Navy UAP video release: authenticity is not case resolution

Verification note Brennan quote corrected to the transcript ('we're going to be seeing', not 'we may be seeing'; the omitted middle restored). Ratcliffe March 2021 material removed (not re-verified in this pass).

What the ODNI 2021 UAP Preliminary Assessment actually said

Verification note Quote wording aligned to source ('there's'). Exact Corden air date not confirmed (given as 'that week'). 'Permanently ended mainstream ridicule' and 'most explicit statement by any modern president' removed as editorial.

What the ODNI 2021 UAP Preliminary Assessment actually said
Gulf of Oman AC-130 cold orbs: what PURSUE actually released

Verification note 'First since 1968 / 54 years' changed to 'about 50 years' (the 1968 event was a House symposium). Added that the memo's authenticity is unverified.

What did the May 17, 2022 House UAP hearing actually put on record?

Verification note 'Directly enabled the 2023-2025 wave of disclosures' softened to 'later cited by whistleblowers'.

What is AARO? The official UAP office explained without the alien leap
WAVE 04 · 2023 · Shootdowns & Non-Human Intelligence Claims
NHI / TUO / Biologics

Verification note VanHerck quote corrected: 'at this point' begins his next sentence in the transcript and was removed.

What did AARO's April 2023 Senate hearing actually say about extraterrestrial evidence?
What did the May 2023 Five Eyes UAP Caucus Working Group agenda actually say?

Verification note Complaint was filed May 2022 (ICIG 'credible and urgent' finding July 2022), not filed July 2022. Col. Karl Nell removed from actors here. DOPSR number '23-S-1474' removed from docRef (not re-verified).

Non-human biologics: what the public UAP record actually contains

Verification note '9-member' board size and '64-page' length removed (not re-verified). 'Passed the Senate in July 2023' clarified as passage of the Senate NDAA containing it.

What is NARA Record Group 615? The UAP records collection explained

Verification note Quote replaced with the official transcript wording (two answers joined by an ellipsis). 'Explicitly stated he had not personally seen a non-human craft or body' corrected: he said he had not witnessed bodies and declined to discuss craft in open session.

UAP congressional hearings timeline: what Congress actually put on record

Verification note '36-page' removed (outlets differ on page count).

What did NASA's UAP study recommend? The data-first answer

Verification note Rep. Matt Gaetz link removed (not established that his remarks concerned this case). The 60% flare finding is in memo D077, not D081 (D081 is a single witness narrative).

AARO Eglin case resolution: moderate-confidence lighter-than-air object, not anomalous craft

Verification note 'Moved F-22s to Naval Station Norfolk' changed to 'F-22s were moved' (destination not confirmed). Detection figures attributed to Guillot's Feb 2025 testimony, not the April 2025 hearing. Gen. VanHerck removed as actor.

Langley Air Force Base drone incursions: what the record shows
WAVE 05 · 2024–2025 · Institutional Pushback & Drone Convergence
USAP / Incursion / Active Archive

Verification note ORNL timing corrected (synopsis April 2024, AARO supplement July 2024). 'OSD FOIA 24-F-0266' removed (unverified).

What AARO's Historical Record Report Volume 1 actually found

Verification note The 'Pentagon spokesperson Sue Gough reiterated...' statement about Imminent could not be found and was replaced with the DoD policy it paraphrased. 'NYT #1 bestseller' and 'DOPSR-cleared' adjectives removed from the summary.

Verification note Date moved from Oct 25 (Rogan) to Sept 3 (Fridman, the only verified pledge). Vance 'obsessed with the whole UAP thing' quote and the 'four times faster than my F-22' line removed (not verified to source in this pass).

Verification note '12-page' kept off; 'ODNI FOIA DF-2025-00021' removed (unverified). Brown authorship recast as his own public claim.

Immaculate Constellation: what the congressional record actually contains

Verification note 'Truly perplexing ... under active physical reconstruction' flourish trimmed.

What did the FY2024 UAP annual report actually say?

Verification note Van Drew's claim was disputed by the Pentagon, not 'retracted'. The NRC FOIA-2026-000270 log (a 2026 FOIA posted by a requester) and the UK RAF base sightings were removed from this event (not part of the Dec 2024 record cited). President-elect Trump removed as actor.

Drone incursions vs UAP claims: how to read the official record

Verification note Presented as a paired event with editorial weight; downgraded to an uncorroborated media claim. 'Psionic asset' details and the 'intense internal debate' line removed (not sourced).

Verification note Loeb's role phrased as speculation he raised. Specific spacecraft list trimmed to what the cited pages support.

Is 3I/ATLAS an alien spacecraft? What the comet source trail says
AARO's 2025 UAP narrative data workshop: why witness reports need infrastructure

Verification note claimRating lowered from OFFICIAL CLAIM to UNVERIFIED CLAIM (witness accounts). Joe Spielberger added. 'Shifted legislative focus' line and specific bill numbers removed as unsourced editorial.

What did the 2025 UAP whistleblower hearing actually add?
WAVE 06 · 2026 · Executive Records Release (PURSUE)
PURSUE / NDA Waiver / RG 615

Verification note Quote marked as truncated (it continues). Agency list 'ODNI, NASA, DOE, and FBI' was invented (post names the Secretary of War and 'other relevant Departments and Agencies'). 'Criticizes Obama on Air Force One' removed (unverified). 'Directly established PURSUE' softened to 'subsequently launched'. DNI Gabbard removed as actor.

What PURSUE is: war.gov/ufo UAP record releases explained

Verification note 'Monthly' cadence removed (releases were not strictly monthly).

What PURSUE is: war.gov/ufo UAP record releases explained

Verification note 'Viral tabloid stories falsely claimed' softened to a factual description of what the PDF does and does not say. 'Late-2025' timing and 'corrected May 26' not re-verified; removed.

What does ODNI-UAP-D001 actually say?

Verification note Memo number corrected in summary to D077 (original summary cited D081).

AARO Western U.S. mother-orb case: what the unresolved analysis actually says

Verification note DOE-UAP-D004 is the 1949 Los Alamos conference record, not 'Project Twinkle green fireball records'. 'Over-claimed online as a near-collision' removed (no source found for that claim). PR104/105 and document-number ranges trimmed.

What is in PURSUE Release 04? NASA STS-80 images and 2025 sea videos

Verification note Actors 'Navy Atlantic Fleet assets' and 'NNSA / NRC' trimmed.

What did the FY2025 UAP annual report actually say?

Verification note 'First time the full House passed the UAPDA package' removed (unverified). Reps. Garcia and Luna removed as actors (not named in the cited records).

Did the House pass the UAP Disclosure Act, and is it law?
What does the 2026 UAP NDA waiver memo actually authorize?

Verification note The 1963 cables are DOS-UAP-D001/D002 (State), not EOP-UAP-D001 (an FBIS translation). 'BYEMAN/OXCART officers' and 'debunking a crash hoax' framing removed; DOW-UAP-D100 not re-verified and dropped.

What is in PURSUE Release 05? FBI triangle renderings and 1953 film analysis

Verification note Grusch's JRE #2560 was published Sept 30, not Sept 15. 'Launches DavidGrusch.com' cut (unverified). 'FY23 NDAA Sec. 1673' section label removed (not confirmed).

What does the September 2026 PURSUE legal waiver actually authorize?

Verification note '65+ files' corrected to about 71 (CBS count). 'Six Spheres' nickname removed (not in official captions).

What is in PURSUE Release 06? AAWSAP DIRDs, the 1952 Tremonton film, and the Ruppelt Boston audio

Verification note Publication date corrected from Oct 6 to Oct 13, 2026. 'DOPSR-cleared' removed (unverified). The NRC FOIA-2026-000270 / Liberation Times sub-claim cut (unrelated and requester-hosted). claimRating lowered to UNVERIFIED CLAIM.

SIGNAL INSPECTOR · SIG-2026-09B
51/52
2026-09-18W6 · AARO / NASA / PURSUELEXICON: PURSUEBOTH LANES

PURSUE Release 06: 2025 Middle East IR Video, Ruppelt 1952 Audio & AAWSAP Records

ORIGIN / FORUM: Department of War (war.gov/ufo / DVIDS)
CLAIM RATING
01 FACT
RECORD RATING
01 FACT
VerificationCORRECTED

'65+ files' corrected to about 71 (CBS count). 'Six Spheres' nickname removed (not in official captions).

01 · WHAT ENTERED THE PUBLIC STREAM

PURSUE Release 06 publishes about 71 files, including a 2025 Middle East infrared video (DOW-UAP-PR135), 2023 Yellow/East China Sea clips (PR143-PR152), four Oct 2023 Colorado police cellphone clips (LLE-UAP-PR001-004), Capt. Edward Ruppelt's 65-minute 1952 audio briefing (PR160), and 2008-2010 AAWSAP contract and research records (D110-D129).

02 · PRIMARY RECORD & RESOLUTION CHECK

A widely shared '480 mph' figure for the PR135 objects is an observer estimate, not an AARO reconstruction. Ruppelt's recording (PR160) is not the 1952 film reel Rep. Burlison asked MIT Lincoln Lab to find.

NAMED FIGURES ON RECORD
DOC REF: DoW Release 4604795 / DVIDS 1023397-1023416 (2026-09-18)
What is in PURSUE Release 06? AAWSAP DIRDs, the 1952 Tremonton film, and the Ruppelt Boston audio
BRIEFS ON THIS LEDGER

Source-rated briefs for these events

When a ledger event is the same incident, hearing, report, or release a brief covers, that brief is linked here.

METHODOLOGY

How these events were verified

Each event on this ledger was checked against at least one source linked on its card. Quotations match that source. When a passage is marked paraphrase, it is not placed in quotation marks. Dates stay in the order and form recorded in the ledger.

The verification mark on a card is one of three results. Verified means the event matched its sources, with at most a cosmetic trim. Corrected means the event is real and a date, quotation, number, actor, or wording was fixed against the source. Downgraded means the event is real, but an earlier draft had stated a claim as fact, so the ratings and wording were lowered. The verification note on the card is the check result as written, including notes such as a downgrade from a claim presented as fact.

Claim and record ratings use UFO Signal’s seven-tier scale, from Fact through Noise. Era attention scores are editorial estimates of relative public attention, labeled on the chart, not a measured index. The four hypotheses are competing readings of the same public record. This page does not adopt one of them.

Corrections: corrections@ufosignal.com. Related source-rated briefs live in the intelligence library.